IPO GMP Trends in India: Shocking Insights From 10 Years of Data

Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in India don’t just bring new companies to the stock market—they also bring excitement, speculation, and plenty of chatter. One of the loudest “buzz signals” is the IPO Grey Market Premium (GMP), the unofficial premium at which IPO shares trade in the grey market (off-exchange) before listing. In practical terms, GMP represents the market’s collective bet on how much the stock might rise (or fall) on listing day compared with the issue price.

From 2015 through 2025, India’s mainboard IPO market moved through multiple phases: cautious recovery, a powerful bull run, selective appetite, the post-Covid surge, the new-age tech boom, and then a reality check—followed by another rebound and a high-volume but low “pop” period. This decade is especially revealing because it shows both sides of GMP: its ability to reflect short-term sentiment and its tendency to mislead when hype outpaces fundamentals.

What Is Grey Market Premium (GMP) and Why It Matters

The grey market is an informal marketplace where traders deal in IPO-related positions before the shares officially list on the exchanges. When an IPO has a positive GMP, it implies traders expect the stock to list above its issue price. When GMP turns negative, it signals expectations of a discount listing.

Here’s the simplest way to interpret it: if the issue price is ₹100 and GMP is ₹20, the grey market is implying a listing near ₹120. Over 2015–2025, GMP became a widely followed indicator for big IPOs, frequently quoted across investor communities.

But it’s crucial to keep one thing clear: GMP is a sentiment indicator, not a promise. It can track demand, oversubscription energy, and mood—but it cannot guarantee how the market will price the stock once real trading begins. GMP can also move sharply in the last few days if market conditions change, if valuations look stretched, or if institutional interest is weaker than retail excitement suggests.

Year-wise IPO GMP Trends in India (2015–2025)

The most powerful way to understand GMP is to view it against the broader IPO environment. When markets are optimistic and liquidity is high, GMP tends to rise and listing-day gains often follow. When conditions turn uncertain, GMP becomes muted—and even strong brands can list weakly.

Decade Timeline (2015–2025) — Market Mood, GMP Heat, Typical Listing Outcomes

This table captures the core “decade lesson”: GMP behaves like a thermometer for risk appetite, and its usefulness depends heavily on market regime.

2015–2016: Recovery Years with More Predictable GMP Behavior

After earlier lulls, IPO interest began improving in 2015 and 2016. GMPs were present but not euphoric. The market was supportive enough for many IPOs to list at a premium, and because valuations were generally more reasonable, the difference between grey expectations and real listing outcomes wasn’t wildly distorted.

In these years, GMP tended to be more reliable because speculation was not extreme. Investors were still cautious, so GMP spikes usually reflected genuine demand rather than a frenzy.

2017: The Bull Market “GMP Boom” Year

2017 became a defining year because it combined a bull market, heavy oversubscriptions, and intense listing-day enthusiasm. GMP conversations were everywhere, and in many well-known cases, the market delivered the “pop” traders expected.

Avenue Supermarts (DMart) became the decade’s most iconic example of how powerful sentiment + strong fundamentals can be. The grey market signaled unusual demand, and the stock’s listing performance validated it. At the same time, 2017 also showed something important: low GMP in expensive or unpopular deals often acted as a warning sign, especially in some government-linked or insurer listings where investor appetite was limited.

In short, 2017 was a year when GMP was loud—and frequently correct on direction—because the entire market leaned bullish.

2018–2019: Volatility, Selective Appetite, and the Rise of “Deal Quality”

In 2018, the market became more cautious and selective. This is where GMP started showing more nuance. Instead of “everything goes up,” investors began evaluating pricing and quality more critically. Some strong offerings did extremely well, while several others disappointed despite pre-listing expectations.

2019 had fewer IPOs, but it produced some dramatic successes—especially in offerings where business quality and pricing created a sense of “scarcity value.” The most famous of these was IRCTC, where demand and excitement translated into an extraordinary debut.

What’s important about 2018–2019 is that GMP stopped behaving like a market-wide signal and became issue-specific. Good issues could have strong GMP and deliver; weaker issues often struggled even if early hype existed.

2020–2021: Post-Covid Liquidity and IPO Euphoria

Once markets recovered from the early 2020 Covid shock, IPO sentiment turned electric. Retail participation surged, liquidity improved, and the IPO pipeline filled quickly. In late 2020 and throughout 2021, GMPs became unusually high for many issues, and listing-day performance often looked like a celebration.

What 2020–2021 Taught Investors About GMP

This period introduced a new problem: GMP correctly captured Day 1 excitement but often ignored Day 200 reality. In other words, the listing pop became less connected to long-term business delivery.

2022: Reality Check Year — When GMP Became Defensive

2022 forced the market into a more cautious posture. Risk appetite weakened, and the market became far less willing to reward rich valuations. GMPs cooled, and many IPOs had low or negligible listing-day gains.

This was also the year of the LIC IPO, where grey market expectations shifted notably closer to listing day. That shift itself is a key lesson: GMP can change fast, and late-stage GMP often contains more information than early-stage hype.

What 2022 demonstrated is simple: when the market is uncertain, even strong brand recognition is not enough. Pricing discipline matters, and GMP becomes more conservative.

2023–2024: Revival Years — Better Listings, But More Discipline

As sentiment improved, IPO activity revived in 2023 and expanded further in 2024. Listing gains came back more strongly, especially in sectors where earnings visibility and valuation comfort were higher. GMP also returned, though in a more selective form than 2021’s frenzy.

These years rewarded investors who combined GMP awareness with business judgment. In many cases, moderate-to-strong GMP aligned with healthy listing performance, particularly for industrial, manufacturing, and certain consumer-driven deals.

2025: The High-Volume Year with a Low “Pop”

2025 was the most psychologically confusing year of the decade. IPO volume surged, but typical listing gains weakened. Many issues listed with small premiums, and several experienced a familiar pattern: a modest pop followed by a drop.

This created a key shift in how investors interpret GMP. Instead of asking “Will it pop?” investors increasingly asked: “Will it hold?”

In high-volume years, supply increases and pricing can get aggressive. That combination can reduce listing upside even when GMP looks positive. So 2025 is a strong reminder that GMP may still indicate direction—but it can struggle to predict magnitude and follow-through.

Sector-wise GMP Accuracy (2015–2025): Where It Worked Best

Different sectors showed different “GMP personalities.” Some sectors produced more stable and rational GMP behavior because valuation was easier and earnings were visible. Other sectors, particularly hype-driven segments, produced more extreme swings.

Sector Patterns — GMP Reliability by Segment

Across the decade, the most consistent truth was this: GMP tends to be most reliable when it matches fundamentals, and least reliable when it’s driven by narrative heat.

Notable IPO Case Studies: GMP vs Listing vs Long-Term

Your original table was strong; below is a cleaner rewritten version that fits the decade framing and keeps the same logic.

High-Profile Examples (2015–2025)

This table makes the “headline truth” easier to see: GMP generally got the listing direction right, but long-term outcomes depended on something GMP doesn’t measure well—business performance at valuation.

GMP vs Reality Over the Long Term: Why “Listing Gains” Can Fade

The decade from 2015–2025 makes one point very clear: IPO investing has two different games.

The first is the listing-day game—where GMP, subscription, and sentiment matter most. The second is the long-term game—where earnings, margins, growth execution, and valuation discipline matter most.

Many IPOs deliver a day-one pop because IPO pricing often leaves some upside to ensure a successful launch. That’s why listing gains are common. But sustaining those gains is harder. Over time, IPO stocks behave like any other stock: they rise when the business delivers and fall when expectations were too high.

This is why “hot IPO years” can later look disappointing as a group. A lot of 2021-era enthusiasm faded in 2022 when global liquidity tightened. Similarly, in 2025, even when listings were green, many stocks struggled to stay above listing prices later—suggesting a market that was willing to open the door, but not host the party for long.

Conclusion

From 2015 to 2025, IPO GMP trends in India revealed a repeating cycle: optimism builds, GMP rises, listings reward early demand—then reality forces investors to reassess what was hype and what was substance. In the strongest bull phases, GMP often appeared “accurate” because the market rewarded almost everything. In more cautious phases, GMP became smaller, more defensive, and sometimes noisier as it struggled to keep up with shifting sentiment and aggressive pricing.

The clearest decade lesson is that GMP is useful—but incomplete. It can be a decent guide to listing-day mood, and a negative GMP often acts as a fair warning. But GMP cannot reliably answer the bigger question: Will this be a good investment after the excitement ends?

If you’re using GMP, use it for what it is: a short-term sentiment signal. Then let fundamentals decide the rest. Think of GMP like a trailer to a movie—it can hint at the opening scene, but it doesn’t tell you how the story ends.